Dust trail of 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova in 2005
By Mikiya Sato
This work started from preliminary calculations by Sergey Shanov.
He reported to me, about the approach of trails of 45p.
His reports;
- The approach with trails will exist twice by 2025.
- The first time is in August 2005 from 1959.
- The second time is in August 2015 from 1969.
- The minimum distance (between both a trail orbit and the earth orbit) is 0.0015 AU.
So, I calculated more in detail about this year approach and announced as follows.
Prediction in 2005
Ejection
Year | Date(UT) | Time | Sol.Long.
(2000) | delta-r
(AU) | Ejection
velocity
(m/s) | delta-a
(AU) | fM | R.P. | V(km/s) | Notice. |
| Alp. | Del. |
| 1959 | Aug. 10.39 | 09:16 | 137.774 | +0.037 | -9.1008 | -0.010 | 0.027 | 325.04 | -11.10 | 25.77 | Descending Node |
| 1959 | Aug. 12.65 | 15:36*1 | 139.938 | 0.0017 | -9.1040 | -0.010 | 0.026 | 325.02 | -11.11 | 25.84 | Minimum distance |
*1: The time contains the error margin of a few minutes.
- A trail from 1959 show the tendency to approach to the earth orbit this year.
- However, the distance at Descending Node is large with +0.037AU.
- On the other hand, a minimum distance is 0.0017AU because of small inclination (about 2.6 deg.).
- Ejection velocity is about -9.1 m/s.
- The value of fM is 0.026 or 0.027, this value is equal to after 37 or 38 revolutions. But an actual number of revolutions is 9, so, this part of trail was extended by the perturbation a little.
- I have not calculated other years yet. So, the appearance level of meteor is uncertain. But the level is not so large (as meteor storm). However, I think that the meteor is appearable from this condition.
- The Radiant is in the Capricorn. This is the east of the radiant of Capricornids and the west of one of Aquarids. It might be a little difficult to distinguish from these shower because the radiant is near.
- If the meteor appears, the period will be long (a few hours, or a few days?) because of small inclination.
Sergey showed that next approach will be in 2015. I want also to calculate the trail on the year in the near future.
I thank to Sergey for his information.
Result in 2005 (Sept. 1, 2005)
In Japan, most observers (including me) were not able to observe this because of bad weather. However, remarkable activities seem not to have been detected worldwide. In this condition, the appearance of the meteor from this comet might not happen. A detailed further examination is a problem.
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