Leonids 2009

by Mikiya Sato


Prediction

I calculated dust trails of Leonids in 2009. I report the simplest results.

Table 1 Data of dust trail of Leonids 2009

Ej.YearDate
(UT)
TimeSol. Lon.
(2000)
D-r
(AU)
Ej.V
(m/s)
D-a
(AU)
fMAlp.Del.Vg
(km/s)
Notice
14662009/11/17.8821:12235.524-0.00085+10.100.1010.085153.97+22.1170.61ZHR=60
15332009/11/17.9021:30235.536+0.00031+12.680.1340.083154.30+22.8970.44ZHR=160
14662009/11/17.9121:52235.552-0.00066+10.250.1030.031153.97+22.0870.61ZHR=30


Fig. 1 Distributions of the dust trails of Leonids in 2009

Mainly, three trails will encounter the earth.
The expected peak time is at about 21:30 (UT) on Nov 17. However, this prediction include the error of about one hour.
And the value of ZHR is roughly estimated.


Observation Results


Link


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