fig.1 Position of the trails from 1466 and 1499 (by Sato).
Leonids for 2003 was forecast from various persons. Then, I also calculated based on these results.
Table-1 are the selections of the forecast by each.
Table.1 Times (UT) forecast for 2003 Leonids [selections] .
| Year of ejection | Lyytinen | Asher et al | Vaubaillon | Sato |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1466 | -- | -- | -- | Nov.13 19h50m |
| 1499 | Nov.13 16h40m | Nov.13 13h15m Nov.13 18h20m | Nov.13 17h17m | Nov.13 13h00m Nov.13 18h05m |
| 1533 | Nov.19 08h | Nov.19 06h30m | Nov.19 07h28m | Nov.19 06h50m |
| 1733 | Nov.19 16h50m | -- | -- | Nov.19 16h40m |
References: Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern, EMP 82, 149-166, 2000. Vaubaillon et al, WGN 31:5, 131-134, 2003. Lyytinen, IMO-News Mailing List 1277, 2003. |
Table-2, Fig-1 and Fig-2 are the results of my calculations.
Table.2 Calculation results of trail positions in 2003 (by Sato).
| Year of ejections | Discharge speed (delta-a) | Position | Date (UT) | Time | Sol.Long. (2000.0) | Distance (AU) | R.P. | Velocity (km/s) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha | Delta | ||||||||
| 1466 | 26.9m/s (0.274) | D.Node Min. | Nov.13 Nov.13 | 19h50m 17h35m | 230.97 230.88 | -0.0022 -0.0021 | 150.7 | +22.9 | 70.6 |
| 1499-1 | 24.3m/s (0.252) | D.Node Min. | Nov.13 Nov.13 | 18h05m 23h10m | 230.90 231.11 | +0.0033 +0.0032 | 150.8 | +23.5 | 70.4 |
| 1499-2 | 26.5m/s (0.275) | D.Node Min. | Nov.13 Nov.13 | 13h00m 14h40m | 230.68 230.75 | +0.0012 +0.0012 | 150.6 | +23.4 | 70.5 |
| 1533 | 27.6m/s (0.296) | D.Node Min. | Nov.19 Nov.19 | 06h50m 07h25m | 236.47 236.50 | +0.0006 +0.0006 | 154.3 | +21.8 | 70.6 |
| 1733 | 17.5m/s (0.184) | D.Node Min. | Nov.19 Nov.19 | 16h40m 18h35m | 236.88 236.96 | +0.0036 +0.0036 | 154.6 | +21.2 | 70.6 |
fig.1 Position of the trails from 1466 and 1499 (by Sato).
fig.2 Position of the trails from 1533 and 1733 (by Sato).
Nov.13-14/2003
Time(UT) min Ls h Lm Cl All Leo HR CHR ZHR Obs.
--------------+--+-------+-----+----+--+---+---+----+----+-----+------------+
15h50m-16h20m 30 230.81 22.6 5.6 0 4 0 0 0 0 K.Terakubo
16h20m-16h50m 30 230.83 28.5 5.6 0 4 2 4 6 18 M.Sato
16h50m-17h20m 30 230.85 34.6 5.2 0 3 2 4 7 17 T.Sato
17h20m-17h50m 30 230.88 40.7 5.4 0 2 1 2 3 6 K.Terakubo
17h50m-18h30m 40 230.90 47.8 5.4 0 10 6 9 15 24 M.Sato
Place:Kobuchisawa Town (Yamanashi pref. Japan)
138d 20.7'E, 35d 54.7'N
Ls : Solar Longitudes J2000.0
h : Radiant height from the horizon (degree)
Lm : Limited Magnitude
Cl : Degree of cloudiness
CHR = HR*Fa*Fb, Fa = 1.6^(6.5-Lm), Fb = 10/(10-Cl)
ZHR = CHR/(sin h)^1.5
This night, the peak of two trails (1466 and 1499) were expected. But it was not so active although the peak was expected. However, I got the impression that Leonids activated around 18:00 UT. (I observed 5 meteors of Leonids from 18:00 to 18:15.)