Leonids 2003 (from 1466, 1499, 1533 and 1733)

Mikiya Sato


Leonids for 2003 was forecast from various persons. Then, I also calculated based on these results.
Table-1 are the selections of the forecast by each.

Table.1 Times (UT) forecast for 2003 Leonids [selections] .

Year of
ejection
LyytinenAsher et alVaubaillonSato
1466------Nov.13 19h50m
1499Nov.13 16h40mNov.13 13h15m
Nov.13 18h20m
Nov.13 17h17m Nov.13 13h00m
Nov.13 18h05m
1533Nov.19 08hNov.19 06h30mNov.19 07h28mNov.19 06h50m
1733Nov.19 16h50m----Nov.19 16h40m

References:
  Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern, EMP 82, 149-166, 2000.
  Vaubaillon et al, WGN 31:5, 131-134, 2003.
  Lyytinen, IMO-News Mailing List 1277, 2003.

Table-2, Fig-1 and Fig-2 are the results of my calculations.

Table.2 Calculation results of trail positions in 2003 (by Sato).

Year of
ejections
Discharge speed
(delta-a)
PositionDate
(UT)
TimeSol.Long.
(2000.0)
Distance
(AU)
R.P.Velocity
(km/s)
AlphaDelta
146626.9m/s
(0.274)
D.Node
Min.
Nov.13
Nov.13
19h50m
17h35m
230.97
230.88
-0.0022
-0.0021
150.7+22.970.6
1499-124.3m/s
(0.252)
D.Node
Min.
Nov.13
Nov.13
18h05m
23h10m
230.90
231.11
+0.0033
+0.0032
150.8+23.570.4
1499-226.5m/s
(0.275)
D.Node
Min.
Nov.13
Nov.13
13h00m
14h40m
230.68
230.75
+0.0012
+0.0012
150.6+23.470.5
153327.6m/s
(0.296)
D.Node
Min.
Nov.19
Nov.19
06h50m
07h25m
236.47
236.50
+0.0006
+0.0006
154.3+21.870.6
173317.5m/s
(0.184)
D.Node
Min.
Nov.19
Nov.19
16h40m
18h35m
236.88
236.96
+0.0036
+0.0036
154.6+21.270.6


fig.1 Position of the trails from 1466 and 1499 (by Sato).


fig.2 Position of the trails from 1533 and 1733 (by Sato).


Observed report (by FAS)

Nov.13-14/2003
Time(UT)      min   Ls      h    Lm  Cl All Leo   HR  CHR  ZHR   Obs.        
--------------+--+-------+-----+----+--+---+---+----+----+-----+------------+
15h50m-16h20m  30  230.81  22.6  5.6  0   4   0    0    0    0  K.Terakubo
16h20m-16h50m  30  230.83  28.5  5.6  0   4   2    4    6   18  M.Sato
16h50m-17h20m  30  230.85  34.6  5.2  0   3   2    4    7   17  T.Sato
17h20m-17h50m  30  230.88  40.7  5.4  0   2   1    2    3    6  K.Terakubo
17h50m-18h30m  40  230.90  47.8  5.4  0  10   6    9   15   24  M.Sato

Place:Kobuchisawa Town (Yamanashi pref. Japan)
      138d 20.7'E, 35d 54.7'N

Ls : Solar Longitudes J2000.0
h  : Radiant height from the horizon (degree)
Lm : Limited Magnitude
Cl : Degree of cloudiness 

CHR = HR*Fa*Fb,  Fa = 1.6^(6.5-Lm),  Fb = 10/(10-Cl)
ZHR = CHR/(sin h)^1.5
This night, the peak of two trails (1466 and 1499) were expected. But it was not so active although the peak was expected. However, I got the impression that Leonids activated around 18:00 UT. (I observed 5 meteors of Leonids from 18:00 to 18:15.)


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