I calculated dust trails of Eta-Aquarids in 2007.
The Earth will encounter the dust trail ejected from 1P/Halley in -835 (BC 836).
Especially, two parts of a dust trail will approach on May 6, the peak of meteor shower is expected to observed.
Main data is summarized to the following table and figure.
Table 1 Data of main dust trails of Eta Aquarids in 2007
Ejection Year | Date(UT) | Time | LS(2000) | Delta-r (AU) | Ejected Velocity (m/s) | Delta-a (AU) | fM | Alp. (deg.) | Del. (deg.) | Vg (km/s) | Notice |
-835 | 2007/05/05.88 | 21:06 | 44.892 | +0.0092 | -20.04 | -0.739 | 0.0083 | 337.28 | -1.14 | 65.70 | |
-835 | 2007/05/05.89 | 21:18 | 44.901 | +0.0090 | -20.04 | -0.739 | 0.0067 | 337.28 | -1.14 | 65.70 | |
-835 | 2007/05/06.56 | 13:28 | 45.553 | +0.00068 | -20.29 | -0.747 | 0.018 | 337.72 | -0.91 | 65.93 | Careful |
-835 | 2007/05/06.62 | 14:57 | 45.613 | -0.00010 | -20.26 | -0.747 | 0.046 | 337.76 | -0.89 | 65.95 | Careful |
-835 | 2007/05/07.47 | 11:13 | 46.430 | -0.011 | -20.62 | -0.759 | 0.082 | 338.33 | -0.56 | 66.24 | |
-835 | 2007/05/07.47 | 11:16 | 46.432 | -0.011 | -20.62 | -0.759 | 0.062 | 338.33 | -0.56 | 66.24 | |
-835 | 2007/05/07.48 | 11:24 | 46.437 | -0.0099 | -20.21 | -0.745 | 0.028 | 338.32 | -0.58 | 66.22 | |
-835 | 2007/05/07.59 | 14:07 | 46.547 | -0.011 | -19.99 | -0.737 | 0.0080 | 338.40 | -0.53 | 66.26 | |
-835 | 2007/05/07.66 | 15:50 | 46.616 | -0.014 | -20.29 | -0.748 | 0.011 | 338.46 | -0.51 | 66.32 | |
-835 | 2007/05/07.69 | 16:33 | 46.645 | -0.015 | -20.49 | -0.754 | 0.026 | 338.48 | -0.48 | 66.34 |
* fM > 0.005, |Delta-r| < 0.02 AU.
Fig. 1 Distributions of the dust trails of Eta Aquarids in 2007
* Colored ovals : fM > 0.01
Expected peak time is between 13:30 and 15:00 on May 6.
However, the trails were very old, it is guessed that the peak is not sharp.